NHL bets: Two plus-money prop plays for Monday, March 11

Last week was quite kind to us in the NHL prop market, and if it's alright with you, I'm ready to do it again. Plus-money plays have been the way for us, and nothing is changing on that front with two plays on a small Monday slate on the ice.

1u: Nino Niederreiter over 2.5 SOG (+135 DraftKings)

Capitals at Jets, 7:30 p.m. ET, MNMT

I definitely want a piece of this Winnipeg offense tonight hosting the Washington Capitals. The Caps tend to find themselves in high-scoring games of late, and they're allowing 32 shots per game on the road over the past month and a half.

With the belief of Jets shots in tow, I turn to Nino Niederreiter, a third-line winger for Winnipeg. Niederreiter tops the Jets in 5v5 shots (14), expected goals (2.4) and high-danger chances (13) across their last five home games, a role I will gladly follow in an inviting spot.

Niederreiter has 3+ shots in five of his last seven at home, and based on recent games, I'm comfortable projecting him at 4+ shot attempts tonight.

When he hits that volume threshold, he's over this line in 78% of his games this season.

1u: Brad Marchand & Morgan Geekie 2+ shots each (+100 FanDuel)

Blues at Bruins, 7 p.m. ET, NESN

St. Louis has been getting peppered by shots lately, and I don't see that changing tonight in Boston. Broken record alert, but 5v5 shots data is what gets Marchand and Geekie on my radar, the two leaders in that department for the Bruins in their last five at home.

Marchand has 2+ shots in 14 of his last 15 home games and 82% on the year. I'm likely being too conservative putting him down at this number, but so be it. He has 4+ shots in four of his last six at home and has averaged 3.2 SOG/game in his last five meetings with the Blues.

Geekie has 2+ shots in six of his last seven and five straight at home. He also has gone for two SOGs in four of his last five against St. Louis, and for good measure the Blues are a great target for centers to find shots.